Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Expanding the G8 and the complexity of International Relations

With the G8 currently meeting in Japan, there has been lots of talk about expanding and/or reforming the group. See this Economist article, which also considers the issue of reforming the UN Security Council.

This quote, I feel, seems to get at something the current administration doesn't seem to understand:
Most recently a concerted effort by Brazil, Germany, India and Japan (a self-styled G4) to join the council’s permanent movers and shakers was thwarted by a combination of foot-dragging, jealousy and stiff-arming. African countries failed to agree on which of their several aspirants should join the bid. Regional rivals—Argentina and Mexico, Italy, Indonesia, Pakistan and others—lobbied to block the front-runners. China made it clear it would veto Japan; America, in supporting only Japan, helped destroy its friend’s chances.


Basically, international relations is really, really, really complicated. Even the membership of a purely symbolic body like the G8 generates a ton of disagreement.

But, back to my point. The Bush administration seems to think solely in the first-person. "I want... X" They don't think about what others want from them or about what others may want from others. Or about how giving what others want from them may piss off a different group.

For example, if the U.S. were to negotiate with Iran, it would not only be about what the United States needs or wants from Iran. It would also be about what Iran whats from the United States. And about what Israel wants. And what Russia wants. And what Iraq wants. But what Russia wants could upset the EU, and so on and so forth. Negotiations aren't just about the United States, although when we were the undisputed hegemon, maybe they were. But in the current multipolar/nonpolar environment, every country matters.

This is what was key to the six-party talks with North Korea. I hope a President Obama (or President McCain) would be willing to try to set up something similar, although getting Israel and Iran to sit down together may be impossible.

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